Tuesday, September 24

Week 4 NFL Picks

Recently it occurred to me that, since I'm picking games every week for my NFL Pick'Em league, I might as well post about 'em, too. We only do straight up in this world, and my record thus far is 34-14. Let's do dis (home team in caps):

San Francisco over ST. LOUIS
These Thursday night games always terrify me. San Fran looks terrible, as does St. Louis. This one is really a tossup, but I'd like to believe the Niners are better than they've shown, and maybe they'll rally around this terrible Aldon Smith distraction to get a win.

Baltimore over BUFFALO
This is maybe one of my most confident games for the week, and I'm still not very confident in it. Baltimore's coming off a huge win over Houston, and Buffalo has looked shaky in its three games, but they've also been within a touchdown in their two losses, so they could easily be 3-0.

Cincinnati over CLEVELAND
I'm not buying the Browns as a good team, though they're better than people realize (and maybe even better with Hoyer and Gordon back and Richardson gone). This'll be a close one, but I think Cincinnati can pull it out, since they're very good at beating teams worse than them, and the Browns fit that bill.

Chicago over DETROIT
Nate Burleson breaking his arm is actually a big deal. He was emerging as the second receiver for the Lions, and now they'll be relying on Ryan Broyles and his balky knees. The Bears are on a roll, and they usually rock the Lions, so let's ride them.

KANSAS CITY over New York Giants
Kansas City is one of the surprise teams of the year (except I expected them to be good, BOOM!). I don't know if anyone predicted the Giants would collapse like this, and I'm sure they'll win a game at some point this year. I just don't see it happening this week.

Pittsburgh over MINNESOTA 
This will be a disgusting, pathetic game played in London. I honestly have no idea which one of these 0-3 teams is less worse. They've both lost to the Bears, and the Vikings have fallen to the Lions and Browns, while the Steelers lost to the Titans and Bengals. They've each looked both pathetic and great in the same game, so it's a real toss up.

Arizona over TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman is completing like 4% of his passes, and his (and my fantasy team's) best receiver is day-to-day with a rib injury. Give me 'Zona and the painful missing finger.

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE
Maybe Indy's not too bad after all. The Richardson trade helps them in the short run, although I'm not entirely sure he's really that good. But it definitely looked like Ahmad Bradshaw was rejuvenated by this move, so may as well ride the Colts, especially against arguably the worst team in the league.

HOUSTON over Seattle
This may be a risky play, but with Houston coming off an embarrassing loss, expect them to put up huge numbers at home. Seattle looked rusty in their lone road game this season (a really boring 12-7 win over the Panthers in Week 1), and I'm banking on the same happening.

TENNESSEE over New York Jets
The Titans are better than people think, while the Jets have somehow stumbled their way to a 2-1 record. With the Titans at home, I'll pick 'em.

DENVER over Philadelphia
The Broncos look like the best team in the NFL right now, and I can't imagine Philly's offense doing well in the altitude. Let's go Broncs!

OAKLAND over Washington
Ugh, both of these teams have looked atrocious over the season. If Terrelle Pryor plays, I'm leaning towards the home dawgs. If he doesn't, I'm switching this to Washington before Sunday.

Dallas over SAN DIEGO
I don't believe Dallas is that good, and San Diego has been right there in every game, only managing to eek out one win. This does have all the makings of a 23-10 Dallas loss, so I fully expect to be wrong on this one.

ATLANTA over New England
The Falcons have to be better than this, right? And the Pats can't keep skating by with all this subpar play, right?

NEW ORLEANS over Miami
Both of these teams are better than folks imagined at the start of the season, and I like the Saints at home. Should be a very entertaining matchup.

And that'll do it! Our first week of byes is upon us, and I'm guessing about everything. Here we gooooo!

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